Frankfurt
Overcoming Selection Bias in Statistical Studies With Amortized Bayesian Inference
Arruda, Jonas, Chervet, Sophie, Staudt, Paula, Wieser, Andreas, Hoelscher, Michael, Sermet-Gaudelus, Isabelle, Binder, Nadine, Opatowski, Lulla, Hasenauer, Jan
Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in epidemiological or survey settings, individuals with certain outcomes may be more likely to be included, resulting in biased prevalence estimates with potentially substantial downstream impact. Classical corrections, such as inverse-probability weighting or explicit likelihood-based models of the selection process, rely on tractable likelihoods, which limits their applicability in complex stochastic models with latent dynamics or high-dimensional structure. Simulation-based inference enables Bayesian analysis without tractable likelihoods but typically assumes missingness at random and thus fails when selection depends on unobserved outcomes or covariates. Here, we develop a bias-aware simulation-based inference framework that explicitly incorporates selection into neural posterior estimation. By embedding the selection mechanism directly into the generative simulator, the approach enables amortized Bayesian inference without requiring tractable likelihoods. This recasting of selection bias as part of the simulation process allows us to both obtain debiased estimates and explicitly test for the presence of bias. The framework integrates diagnostics to detect discrepancies between simulated and observed data and to assess posterior calibration. The method recovers well-calibrated posterior distributions across three statistical applications with diverse selection mechanisms, including settings in which likelihood-based approaches yield biased estimates. These results recast the correction of selection bias as a simulation problem and establish simulation-based inference as a practical and testable strategy for parameter estimation under selection bias.
- Europe > Germany > Bavaria > Upper Bavaria > Munich (0.05)
- Europe > Germany > Baden-Württemberg > Freiburg (0.04)
- Europe > France > Île-de-France > Paris > Paris (0.04)
- (6 more...)
- Information Technology > Enterprise Applications > Customer Relationship Management (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Bayesian Inference (0.85)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- Europe > Monaco (0.04)
- Europe > Italy > Calabria (0.04)
- (2 more...)
- Europe > United Kingdom > Scotland (0.05)
- Europe > Albania > Tirana County > Tirana (0.04)
- Europe > Germany > Hesse > Darmstadt Region > Frankfurt (0.04)
- (17 more...)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.68)
- Personal (0.46)
- Leisure & Entertainment > Sports (1.00)
- Leisure & Entertainment > Games > Computer Games (0.46)
- North America > United States (1.00)
- Africa > Senegal > Kolda Region > Kolda (0.05)
- Europe > Germany > Hesse > Darmstadt Region > Frankfurt (0.04)
- Energy (0.93)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.68)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Greater London > London (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- Europe > Germany > Hesse > Darmstadt Region > Frankfurt (0.04)
- (2 more...)
- Europe > Switzerland > Zürich > Zürich (0.14)
- Europe > Netherlands (0.04)
- Europe > Germany > Baden-Württemberg > Karlsruhe Region > Karlsruhe (0.04)
- (4 more...)
- North America > United States (0.04)
- Europe > Portugal > Braga > Braga (0.04)
- Europe > Germany > Hesse > Darmstadt Region > Frankfurt (0.04)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Reinforcement Learning (0.96)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.67)
- North America > United States > Minnesota > Hennepin County > Minneapolis (0.14)
- Oceania > Australia (0.14)
- North America > United States > California > Los Angeles County > Los Angeles (0.14)
- (17 more...)
- Information Technology (0.92)
- Education (0.68)
- Government (0.67)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Large Language Model (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Cognitive Science (0.68)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.46)
- Europe > Italy > Calabria > Catanzaro Province > Catanzaro (0.04)
- Europe > Germany > Hesse > Darmstadt Region > Frankfurt (0.04)
- Asia > Singapore > Central Region > Singapore (0.04)
- Asia > Middle East > Jordan (0.04)